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Inflation uncertainty raises stakes for borrowers and savers

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Caitlyn Eastell, Apprentice Press & PR Assistant
Caitlyn Eastell, Personal Finance Analyst 01603 476169 Email Caitlyn
25/03/2026

Inflation uncertainty raises stakes for borrowers and savers

Shifting inflation expectations are set to reshape the outlook for savers and borrowers, as uncertainty builds, Moneyfactscompare.co.uk analysis can reveal.

Inflation uncertainty raises stakes for borrowers and savers

Shifting inflation expectations are set to reshape the outlook for savers and borrowers, as uncertainty builds, Moneyfactscompare.co.uk analysis can reveal.

Mortgages

  • Since the previous inflation announcement, the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage rate has risen from 4.91% to 5.50%.
  • Meanwhile, the average two-year fixed rate has risen from 4.85% to 5.56%. The average five-year fixed rate has risen from 4.97% to 5.54%.
  • Current swap rate levels indicate that lenders are prepared for several base rate hikes. Borrowers on trackers will quickly feel the force and even a 0.25% jump could push the average two-year tracker from 4.55% to 4.80%, adding almost £430 a year onto a typical £250,000 loan over 25 years.
  • Borrowers coming off low five-year fixed rates should expect higher-than-expected costs. Locking into another five-year term could increase their monthly payments by over £380 based on a typical £250,000 loan over 25 years.
  • Since 9 March, over 1,700 mortgage products have been withdrawn.

 

Caitlyn Eastell, Personal Finance Analyst at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“The outlook for interest rates has changed drastically over the past few weeks, spurred by unstable swap rates caused by the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the mortgage market has been extremely volatile and over 1,700 products have been withdrawn since 9 March. While some of these deals have come back, they are at higher rates and it could be fair to assume many lenders may be taking this path, which could drive average rates up further. Currently, lenders are expecting several base rate hikes, which may be demoralising for borrowers. Even just one 0.25% hike could push mortgage rates higher, but borrowers on trackers will quickly feel the force of these rises. Currently the average two-year tracker is 4.55% and a small jump could take this to around 4.80%, adding almost £430 a year onto their loan.

“Around 1.8 million borrowers are expected to refinance this year; this includes those coming off low five-year fixed rates. Homeowners should prepare themselves for higher-than-expected costs, if they lock into another five-year term, they could see their monthly repayments spike by over £380. Borrowers have the option of securing a new deal typically up to six months before their current rate expires, this may be crucial for those who are concerned about rising costs. This also avoids borrowers slipping onto their revert rate, which would add over £630 per month on average, an amount that many may not be able to afford.”

 

Mortgages

  • Since the previous inflation announcement, the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage rate has risen from 4.91% to 5.50%.
  • Meanwhile, the average two-year fixed rate has risen from 4.85% to 5.56%. The average five-year fixed rate has risen from 4.97% to 5.54%.
  • Current swap rate levels indicate that lenders are prepared for several base rate hikes. Borrowers on trackers will quickly feel the force and even a 0.25% jump could push the average two-year tracker from 4.55% to 4.80%, adding almost £430 a year onto a typical £250,000 loan over 25 years.
  • Borrowers coming off low five-year fixed rates should expect higher-than-expected costs. Locking into another five-year term could increase their monthly payments by over £380 based on a typical £250,000 loan over 25 years.
  • Since 9 March, over 1,700 mortgage products have been withdrawn.

 

Caitlyn Eastell, Personal Finance Analyst at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“The outlook for interest rates has changed drastically over the past few weeks, spurred by unstable swap rates caused by the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the mortgage market has been extremely volatile and over 1,700 products have been withdrawn since 9 March. While some of these deals have come back, they are at higher rates and it could be fair to assume many lenders may be taking this path, which could drive average rates up further. Currently, lenders are expecting several base rate hikes, which may be demoralising for borrowers. Even just one 0.25% hike could push mortgage rates higher, but borrowers on trackers will quickly feel the force of these rises. Currently the average two-year tracker is 4.55% and a small jump could take this to around 4.80%, adding almost £430 a year onto their loan.

“Around 1.8 million borrowers are expected to refinance this year; this includes those coming off low five-year fixed rates. Homeowners should prepare themselves for higher-than-expected costs, if they lock into another five-year term, they could see their monthly repayments spike by over £380. Borrowers have the option of securing a new deal typically up to six months before their current rate expires, this may be crucial for those who are concerned about rising costs. This also avoids borrowers slipping onto their revert rate, which would add over £630 per month on average, an amount that many may not be able to afford.”

 

Savings

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 3.0% during February, from 3.0% in January. The Bank of England’s projection rate for inflation during Q1 2027 is 1.7%.
  • The Moneyfacts Average Savings Rate currently sits at 3.39%, which is higher than inflation, meaning savers can get real returns on their cash but it’s still important to shop around for the best rates.
  • There are currently 1,679 savings accounts that beat inflation* (169 easy access, 148 notice accounts, 146 variable rate ISAs, 406 fixed rate ISAs and 810 fixed rate bonds).
  • In March 2025, there were 1,575 deals that could beat CPI which was then at 2.8% (February 2025 CPI) and in March 2024, there were 1,365 deals that could beat CPI which was at 3.4% (February 2024 CPI).

 

Caitlyn Eastell, Personal Finance Analyst at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“At the beginning of the year, inflation was expected to cool to its 2% target from April. However, ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to bring that progress to a screeching halt, potentially keeping prices higher for longer. It’s a double-edged sword; stubborn inflation could slam the brakes on rate cuts, or even prompt hikes, which could deliver short-term boosts to savings returns. This relief is short-lived, if inflation stays elevated, it will quickly erode ‘real’ returns and chip away at the true value of savers’ cash. For example, savers with £10,000 earning the Moneyfacts Average Savings Rate of 3.37% would earn £339 in interest over a year, but if inflation rose to around 4%, the real value of their original investment would effectively fall by around £61. Settling for average won’t cut it, savers should be hunting down the most competitive rates. The top easy access account currently pays 4.71%, which puts savers ahead, pocketing a real return of roughly £71 even after inflation takes a cut.

“With the tax-year end fast approaching, savers should now be taking a ‘use it or lose it’ approach for any remaining cash ISA allowances because any unused portion can’t be carried forward beyond the deadline. Savers may also be feeling the pressure to choose an ISA for the 2026/27 year, but providers will be continuing to compete for investors’ new cash for weeks after the deadline, meaning its worth tracking the top returns beyond April. The upcoming tax-year also marks the final year for those under 65 to use their full £20,000 cash ISA allowance, which could be crucial for competition. Additionally, from April 2027, ISA transfer rules are tightening, with the key change being that savers will no longer be able to transfer money from a stocks and shares ISA into a cash ISA, which reduces flexibility. Anyone seeking to reduce their risk or take advantage of higher rates will need to plan ahead, as withdrawing funds from an investment ISA could forfeit their tax-free benefits.”

Savings

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 3.0% during February, from 3.0% in January. The Bank of England’s projection rate for inflation during Q1 2027 is 1.7%.
  • The Moneyfacts Average Savings Rate currently sits at 3.39%, which is higher than inflation, meaning savers can get real returns on their cash but it’s still important to shop around for the best rates.
  • There are currently 1,679 savings accounts that beat inflation* (169 easy access, 148 notice accounts, 146 variable rate ISAs, 406 fixed rate ISAs and 810 fixed rate bonds).
  • In March 2025, there were 1,575 deals that could beat CPI which was then at 2.8% (February 2025 CPI) and in March 2024, there were 1,365 deals that could beat CPI which was at 3.4% (February 2024 CPI).

 

Caitlyn Eastell, Personal Finance Analyst at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“At the beginning of the year, inflation was expected to cool to its 2% target from April. However, ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to bring that progress to a screeching halt, potentially keeping prices higher for longer. It’s a double-edged sword; stubborn inflation could slam the brakes on rate cuts, or even prompt hikes, which could deliver short-term boosts to savings returns. This relief is short-lived, if inflation stays elevated, it will quickly erode ‘real’ returns and chip away at the true value of savers’ cash. For example, savers with £10,000 earning the Moneyfacts Average Savings Rate of 3.37% would earn £339 in interest over a year, but if inflation rose to around 4%, the real value of their original investment would effectively fall by around £61. Settling for average won’t cut it, savers should be hunting down the most competitive rates. The top easy access account currently pays 4.71%, which puts savers ahead, pocketing a real return of roughly £71 even after inflation takes a cut.

“With the tax-year end fast approaching, savers should now be taking a ‘use it or lose it’ approach for any remaining cash ISA allowances because any unused portion can’t be carried forward beyond the deadline. Savers may also be feeling the pressure to choose an ISA for the 2026/27 year, but providers will be continuing to compete for investors’ new cash for weeks after the deadline, meaning its worth tracking the top returns beyond April. The upcoming tax-year also marks the final year for those under 65 to use their full £20,000 cash ISA allowance, which could be crucial for competition. Additionally, from April 2027, ISA transfer rules are tightening, with the key change being that savers will no longer be able to transfer money from a stocks and shares ISA into a cash ISA, which reduces flexibility. Anyone seeking to reduce their risk or take advantage of higher rates will need to plan ahead, as withdrawing funds from an investment ISA could forfeit their tax-free benefits.”

 

Savings market analysis

Top savings deals at £10,000 gross

20-Mar-24

26-Mar-25

18-Feb-26

Today

Easy access account

Ulster Bank – 5.20%

Atom bank – 4.65%

Tembo Money – 4.51% (includes bonus)

Tembo Money – 4.71% (includes bonus)

Notice account

Hinckley & Rugby BS – 5.25% (180-day)

Oxbury Bank – 4.70% (90-day)

GB Bank – 4.33% (120-Day)

The Stafford BS – 4.26% (180-Day)

One-year fixed rate bond

MBNA – 5.27%

Birmingham Bank – 4.67%

Rova – 4.25% (payable on maturity)

 Union Bank of India (UK) Ltd – 4.45% (payable on maturity)

Two-year fixed rate bond

Oxbury Bank – 5.11%

Birmingham Bank – 4.58%

LHV Bank – 4.24% (payable on maturity)

Market Harborough BS – 4.65%

Three-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.85% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK– 4.61% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.32% (payable on maturity)

 Market Harborough BS – 4.75%

Four-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.31% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.31% (payable on maturity)

Five-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.95% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.64% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice accounts exclude those over 180 days.

Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

 

ISA market analysis

Top savings deals at £10,000 gross

20-Mar-24

26-Mar-25

18-Feb-26

Today

Easy access ISA

Moneybox – 5.11% (includes bonus)

Moneybox – 5.28% (includes bonus)

Plum – 4.26%

(includes bonus)

Plum – 4.62%

(includes bonus)

Notice ISA

West Brom BS – 5.10% (60-day)

Tipton & Coseley – 4.50% (60-day)

Tipton & Coseley BS 3.80% - (60 Day)

Aldermore 4.15% - (60 Day)

One-year fixed rate ISA

Virgin Money – 5.25%

Cynergy Bank – 4.55%

Castle Trust Bank – 4.15%

Hodge Bank – 4.36%

Two-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.81% (payable on maturity)

Cynergy Bank – 4.44%

UBL UK – 4.13% (payable on maturity)

Charter Savings Bank – 4.36%

Three-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.59% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.61% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.16% (payable on maturity)

 West Brom BS – 4.40%

Four-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.30% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.30% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.15% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.15% (payable on maturity)

Five-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.69% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.49% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.49% (payable on maturity)

 Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice ISAs exclude those over 180 days.

Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

 

Data note: Please note that these savings product numbers include deals that are available to UK residents (easy access accounts, notice accounts, fixed rate bonds, variable Cash ISAs and fixed Cash ISAs) and exclude regular savers, children’s savers, variable rate fixed term bonds or ISAs, JISAs and LISAs, based on a £10,000 deposit, gross rates. Higher rates may be available for other levels of deposit.

 

Savings market analysis

Top savings deals at £10,000 gross

20-Mar-24

26-Mar-25

18-Feb-26

Today

Easy access account

Ulster Bank – 5.20%

Atom bank – 4.65%

Tembo Money – 4.51% (includes bonus)

Tembo Money – 4.71% (includes bonus)

Notice account

Hinckley & Rugby BS – 5.25% (180-day)

Oxbury Bank – 4.70% (90-day)

GB Bank – 4.33% (120-Day)

The Stafford BS – 4.26% (180-Day)

One-year fixed rate bond

MBNA – 5.27%

Birmingham Bank – 4.67%

Rova – 4.25% (payable on maturity)

 Union Bank of India (UK) Ltd – 4.45% (payable on maturity)

Two-year fixed rate bond

Oxbury Bank – 5.11%

Birmingham Bank – 4.58%

LHV Bank – 4.24% (payable on maturity)

Market Harborough BS – 4.65%

Three-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.85% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK– 4.61% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.32% (payable on maturity)

 Market Harborough BS – 4.75%

Four-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.31% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.31% (payable on maturity)

Five-year fixed rate bond

UBL UK – 4.95% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.64% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice accounts exclude those over 180 days.

Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

 

ISA market analysis

Top savings deals at £10,000 gross

20-Mar-24

26-Mar-25

18-Feb-26

Today

Easy access ISA

Moneybox – 5.11% (includes bonus)

Moneybox – 5.28% (includes bonus)

Plum – 4.26%

(includes bonus)

Plum – 4.62%

(includes bonus)

Notice ISA

West Brom BS – 5.10% (60-day)

Tipton & Coseley – 4.50% (60-day)

Tipton & Coseley BS 3.80% - (60 Day)

Aldermore 4.15% - (60 Day)

One-year fixed rate ISA

Virgin Money – 5.25%

Cynergy Bank – 4.55%

Castle Trust Bank – 4.15%

Hodge Bank – 4.36%

Two-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.81% (payable on maturity)

Cynergy Bank – 4.44%

UBL UK – 4.13% (payable on maturity)

Charter Savings Bank – 4.36%

Three-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.59% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.61% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.16% (payable on maturity)

 West Brom BS – 4.40%

Four-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.30% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.30% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.15% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.15% (payable on maturity)

Five-year fixed rate ISA

UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.69% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.49% (payable on maturity)

UBL UK – 4.49% (payable on maturity)

 Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice ISAs exclude those over 180 days.

Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

 

Data note: Please note that these savings product numbers include deals that are available to UK residents (easy access accounts, notice accounts, fixed rate bonds, variable Cash ISAs and fixed Cash ISAs) and exclude regular savers, children’s savers, variable rate fixed term bonds or ISAs, JISAs and LISAs, based on a £10,000 deposit, gross rates. Higher rates may be available for other levels of deposit.

Notes to editors

You are welcome to use part or all of this press release, so long as we are sufficiently sourced. We would appreciate a link back to Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.

Pioneering financial comparison technology for over 35 years, Moneyfacts Group plc is the UK’s leading provider of retail financial product data. Used by virtually every bank and building society in the UK, and supplied to the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority, Financial Ombudsman Service, HM Treasury, Prudential Regulatory Authority and UK Finance.

Our expert research team monitors the thousands of mortgages, savings, credit card, personal loan, banking, life, pension and investment products in the UK.

Moneyfactscompare.co.uk is the financial product price comparison site, launched as Moneyfacts.co.uk in 2000 and rebranded to Moneyfactscompare.co.uk in 2023, which helps consumers compare thousands of financial products, including credit cards, savings, mortgages and many more. Unlike other comparison sites, Moneyfactscompare.co.uk shows whole of market data regardless of commercial bias, showing consumers a true picture of the best products based on the criteria they select.

For more information about us please see our key facts.

Broadcast

Our broadcast suite enables our finance experts to appear in-vision for television, and we regularly comment live on national and regional radio.

To arrange an interview for radio or television, please contact our press department. We have an in-house broadcast room.

 

Notes to editors

You are welcome to use part or all of this press release, so long as we are sufficiently sourced. We would appreciate a link back to Moneyfactscompare.co.uk.

Pioneering financial comparison technology for over 35 years, Moneyfacts Group plc is the UK’s leading provider of retail financial product data. Used by virtually every bank and building society in the UK, and supplied to the Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority, Financial Ombudsman Service, HM Treasury, Prudential Regulatory Authority and UK Finance.

Our expert research team monitors the thousands of mortgages, savings, credit card, personal loan, banking, life, pension and investment products in the UK.

Moneyfactscompare.co.uk is the financial product price comparison site, launched as Moneyfacts.co.uk in 2000 and rebranded to Moneyfactscompare.co.uk in 2023, which helps consumers compare thousands of financial products, including credit cards, savings, mortgages and many more. Unlike other comparison sites, Moneyfactscompare.co.uk shows whole of market data regardless of commercial bias, showing consumers a true picture of the best products based on the criteria they select.

For more information about us please see our key facts.

Broadcast

Our broadcast suite enables our finance experts to appear in-vision for television, and we regularly comment live on national and regional radio.

To arrange an interview for radio or television, please contact our press department. We have an in-house broadcast room.

 

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Caitlyn Eastell Personal Finance Analyst